Step 2 Score Predictor and CK Calculator
Combine Step 2 CK CCSSA, UWSA, Free 120, AMBOSS, and CMS inputs into one independent estimate. Review the point estimate together with its 95% confidence interval.
Run the Step 2 CK calculator
Select Step 2 CK in the form below, then enter your practice scores. The calculator outputs your point estimate, 95% CI, and percentile.
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A worked example
Suppose you enter CCSSA Form 12 = 248, UWSA 2 = 255, and Free 120 = 78%. The calculator applies the UWSA-2 −2 correction (see the table below), weights your most recent forms, and returns a point estimate near 250 with a 95% confidence interval of roughly ±8. Read against the specialty table, that sits around the median for diagnostic radiology and well above the family-medicine range — useful context when you are deciding whether your score supports your target specialty.
Illustrative only — your result depends on your exact forms and dates. The corrections and assumptions are documented in our methodology.
Step 2 CK by specialty (matched applicants)
NRMP 2024 Charting Outcomes data for US MD seniors. Numbers are Step 2 CK three-digit scores at the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of matched applicants.
| Specialty | p10 | Median | p90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dermatology | 248 | 257 | 268 |
| Plastic Surgery | 246 | 256 | 267 |
| Neurosurgery | 244 | 255 | 267 |
| Otolaryngology (ENT) | 244 | 254 | 264 |
| Orthopedic Surgery | 242 | 252 | 263 |
| Ophthalmology | 240 | 250 | 261 |
| Radiology — Diagnostic | 236 | 248 | 260 |
| Anesthesiology | 234 | 246 | 258 |
| Internal Medicine | 232 | 245 | 257 |
| Emergency Medicine | 232 | 243 | 254 |
| OB/GYN | 232 | 243 | 254 |
| General Surgery | 232 | 244 | 256 |
| Pediatrics | 232 | 243 | 254 |
| Psychiatry | 226 | 240 | 253 |
| Family Medicine | 220 | 234 | 248 |
Source: NRMP Charting Outcomes in the Match for US Allopathic Seniors, 2024 edition. Step 2 CK columns only; we omit Step 1 (pass/fail). For IMGs, subtract roughly 10-15 points across all tiers.
How we adjust each input source
Each practice exam systematically deviates from the real Step 2 CK. Our calculator applies these corrections automatically — but here's the math we use, so you can sanity-check.
| Source | Bias | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| CCSSA forms 9-15 | Use the equated score report | Modelled |
| UWSA 1 | Over-predicts | −3 |
| UWSA 2 | Most accurate UWSA | −2 |
| Free 120 | Best single predictor | 0 |
| AMBOSS SA | Runs hot | −5 |
| CMS Form | Subject-level, no overall | — |
The 8-week Step 2 CK practice arc
A recommended sequence used by 240+ scorers (Reddit r/Step2 polls 2024-2025).
- Week −8Baseline CCSSA
Use an unused Step 2 CK CCSSA form to establish a baseline and identify content areas that need work.
- Week −6UWSA 1
Mid-cycle check. Treat the UWSA result as another input, not as a fixed offset from your final score.
- Week −4Second CCSSA
Choose another unused CCSSA form and compare both the total result and content-area feedback.
- Week −3UWSA 2
Most predictive UWSA. Calibrate confidence here.
- Week −2Late CCSSA check
Use a fresh form to check whether your trend holds under new questions.
- Week −1Free 120 + recent CCSSA
Compare the two signals. Agreement is more informative than a fixed adjustment to either score.
- Test dayWalk in with confidence
Use the full predicted range for planning. No practice assessment can guarantee the final score.
Step 2 CK predictor FAQs
How accurate is the Step 2 CK predictor?+
A reproducible holdout validation dataset is not currently published, so we do not claim a verified median error. More recent, consistent inputs can make the model range more useful, but the official score report remains the primary readiness signal.
Which practice exam is most predictive of Step 2 CK?+
No single practice exam guarantees a final score. Use a recent CCSSA result together with Free 120 or UWSA 2, and pay attention to agreement across inputs and the confidence interval.
What is the current Step 2 CK passing score?+
The passing standard is 218 for examinees testing on or after July 1, 2025. A prediction near that threshold should be interpreted with its full confidence interval, not as a guaranteed pass.
Should I take Step 2 CK before submitting ERAS?+
Strongly yes. Programs use Step 2 CK as the primary screening filter post-Step-1-P/F. Score reports are released 4 weeks after testing; back-calculate from the September ERAS submission window.
What is a competitive Step 2 CK score?+
Specialty-dependent. Family medicine matches in the 220s, while dermatology and plastic surgery medians sit near 257. See the specialty table above for percentile context.
What will my Step 2 CK score be?
Drop your numbers in. Free, no signup. Three weeks of NBME data is enough to get a tight confidence interval.