Step 2 CK Predictor: Forecast Your Real Score
Step 2 CK is now the single most important number on your residency application. Combine your NBME, UWSA, Free 120, AMBOSS, and CMS Form inputs into one weighted prediction — with the confidence interval to back it up.
Run the Step 2 CK calculator
Select Step 2 CK in the form below, then enter your practice scores. The calculator outputs your point estimate, 95% CI, and percentile.
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Step 2 CK by specialty (matched applicants)
NRMP 2024 Charting Outcomes data for US MD seniors. Numbers are Step 2 CK three-digit scores at the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of matched applicants.
| Specialty | p10 | Median | p90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dermatology | 248 | 257 | 268 |
| Plastic Surgery | 246 | 256 | 267 |
| Neurosurgery | 244 | 255 | 267 |
| Otolaryngology (ENT) | 244 | 254 | 264 |
| Orthopedic Surgery | 242 | 252 | 263 |
| Ophthalmology | 240 | 250 | 261 |
| Radiology — Diagnostic | 236 | 248 | 260 |
| Anesthesiology | 234 | 246 | 258 |
| Internal Medicine | 232 | 245 | 257 |
| Emergency Medicine | 232 | 243 | 254 |
| OB/GYN | 232 | 243 | 254 |
| General Surgery | 232 | 244 | 256 |
| Pediatrics | 232 | 243 | 254 |
| Psychiatry | 226 | 240 | 253 |
| Family Medicine | 220 | 234 | 248 |
Source: NRMP Charting Outcomes in the Match for US Allopathic Seniors, 2024 edition. Step 2 CK columns only; we omit Step 1 (pass/fail). For IMGs, subtract roughly 10-15 points across all tiers.
How we adjust each input source
Each practice exam systematically deviates from the real Step 2 CK. Our calculator applies these corrections automatically — but here's the math we use, so you can sanity-check.
| Source | Bias | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| NBME 28-32 | Under-predicts by 3-8 pts | +5 |
| UWSA 1 | Over-predicts | −3 |
| UWSA 2 | Most accurate UWSA | −2 |
| Free 120 | Best single predictor | 0 |
| AMBOSS SA | Runs hot | −5 |
| CMS Form | Subject-level, no overall | — |
The 8-week Step 2 CK practice arc
A recommended sequence used by 240+ scorers (Reddit r/Step2 polls 2024-2025).
- Week −8Baseline NBME 28 or 29
Take cold to expose weak rotations. Score will feel disappointing — that's the point.
- Week −6UWSA 1
Mid-cycle check. UWSA 1 runs hot; expect a number 3-5 points above your true level.
- Week −4NBME 30
Best representativeness of question style. Use weakness map to plan final 4 weeks.
- Week −3UWSA 2
Most predictive UWSA. Calibrate confidence here.
- Week −2NBME 31
Trajectory check. Should be ≥ NBME 30 if you've been on track.
- Week −1NBME 32 + Free 120
Final calibration. NBME 32 = most predictive NBME. Free 120 = most predictive single form overall.
- Test dayWalk in with confidence
Your real Step 2 CK should land at NBME 32 + 5 ± 4 points.
Step 2 CK predictor FAQs
How accurate is the Step 2 CK predictor?+
With 5+ recent inputs, the 95% confidence interval narrows to about ±4 points. With one input it's ±12. Median absolute error in our validation set (n=1,247) is 4.2 points.
Which practice exam is most predictive of Step 2 CK?+
The Free 120, especially when taken within two weeks of test day. After that: NBME 32, NBME 31, UWSA 2, and NBME 30 in that order.
Does the calculator know about the 2024 score recalibration?+
Yes. The Step 2 CK pass threshold remains 209, but NBME re-equated forms in late 2024. Our model uses the new equating coefficients.
Should I take Step 2 CK before submitting ERAS?+
Strongly yes. Programs use Step 2 CK as the primary screening filter post-Step-1-P/F. Score reports are released 4 weeks after testing; back-calculate from the September ERAS submission window.
What is a competitive Step 2 CK score?+
Specialty-dependent. Family medicine matches in the 220s, while dermatology and plastic surgery medians sit near 257. See the specialty table above for percentile context.
What will my Step 2 CK score be?
Drop your numbers in. Free, no signup. Three weeks of NBME data is enough to get a tight confidence interval.