Do not turn a score into a match promise
Program selection uses more than one exam result, and historical matched-applicant data does not create a universal specialty cutoff.
Free Step 2 CK score predictor
Step 2 CK Score Predictor: Combine Your Practice Tests
One practice score is a checkpoint; several make a prediction. Enter any mix of CCSSA, UWSA, Free 120, and AMBOSS results to get one Step 2 CK estimate with a planning range. Converting a single NBME form? Use the NBME score conversion page.
Run the Step 2 CK calculator
Select Step 2 CK in the form below, then enter your practice scores. The calculator outputs your point estimate, estimated range and model-based pass estimate.
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A worked example
Suppose you enter CCSSA Form 12 = 248, UWSA 2 = 255, and Free 120 = 78%. The calculator applies the UWSA-2 −2 correction (see the table below), weights your most recent forms, and returns a point estimate near 250 with an estimated planning range of roughly ±8. Read against the specialty table, that sits around the median for diagnostic radiology and well above the family-medicine range — useful context when you are deciding whether your score supports your target specialty.
Illustrative only — your result depends on your exact forms and dates. The corrections and assumptions are documented in our methodology.
Keep score context honest
A predicted score is not a residency-match forecast. Use these checks before comparing a model output with specialty data.
Use the correct comparison group
If you consult match data, match the applicant type, specialty, cycle, and reported statistic. Do not apply a fixed adjustment from one group to another.
Verify the current source
Match reports and program practices change. Use current NRMP publications and individual program information for application planning.
Keep readiness and applications separate
Use official assessment feedback for exam readiness and current advising or program data for application strategy. One model output cannot answer both questions.
How we adjust each input source
These values are versioned internal model assumptions. They are not official conversions and are not proof that every assessment has a universal bias.
| Source | Model handling | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| CCSSA forms 9-15 | Use the equated score report | Modelled |
| UWSA 1 | Internal source adjustment | −5 |
| UWSA 2 | Internal source adjustment | −2 |
| Free 120 | Percentage input; internal mapping | 0 |
| AMBOSS SA | Preserve reported 3-digit estimate; lower source weight | 0 |
How well does each practice test predict Step 2 CK?
Not every input deserves the same trust. This table separates what NBME states, what peer-reviewed research found, and where no independent evidence exists. It is why the predictor weights sources differently.
| Practice test | What the evidence says | Evidence type | How this predictor uses it |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBME CCSSA (Forms 9–16) | NBME says the Total CCSSA Score estimates your Step 2 CK score if both were taken with the same knowledge and conditions. The report adds a likely range (about ±8 points in NBME's sample) and a pass probability modeled on examinees who tested within a week. A 52-study review found CCSSA a good predictor, and low CCSSA scores flagged risk of failing (Morrison et al., 2014). | Official statement + peer-reviewed | Kept as the midpoint with full weight. No extra curve is applied. |
| NBME CCSE (school-administered) | Correlation of r = 0.57 with Step 2 CK (Guiot et al., 2018). A CCSE score above 90 corresponded to a near-100% chance of passing (Morrison et al., 2018). | Peer-reviewed | Not a calculator input; its scale differs from CCSSA. |
| NBME clinical subject (shelf) exams | The same review reports clinical NBME exam grades correlating with Step 2 CK at r = 0.77, and each extra point on the surgery exam raising the odds of passing about 1.2 times. | Peer-reviewed | Not an input; useful for spotting weak subjects early. |
| UWorld UWSA 1 and UWSA 2 | We found no peer-reviewed study of how well UWSA predicts Step 2 CK. Students widely report that UWSA scores run higher than the real exam, more so for UWSA 1. | No independent study found | Internal assumption: subtract 5 points (UWSA 1) and 2 points (UWSA 2); UWSA 1 gets a lower weight. |
| Free 120 (USMLE sample questions) | USMLE offers these questions for familiarization and reports only a raw percent. No official conversion or peer-reviewed validation exists. | No independent study found | Converted with an internal planning curve and best read alongside a CCSSA. |
| AMBOSS Step 2 Self-Assessment | AMBOSS reports its own 3-digit predicted score. We found no independent peer-reviewed validation. | Vendor-reported | Kept as reported, but weighted lower than CCSSA when combined. |
About the correlation numbers you see online. Figures such as “r = 0.9 with real Step 2 CK” usually come from score-sharing surveys and spreadsheets where students volunteer their results. People who did well are more likely to report, so these numbers tend to look better than the truth. They are not peer-reviewed, and this page does not repeat them as evidence.
Sources: Jacobparayil et al., Predictors of Performance on USMLE Step 2 CK: A Systematic Literature Review (Cureus, 2022); NBME CCSSA sample score report. Model assumptions for each source are listed on the methodology page.
The 8-week Step 2 CK practice arc
An illustrative sequence, not an evidence-based prescription. Adapt it to your school's guidance and the assessments you still have unused.
- Week −8Baseline CCSSA
Use an unused Step 2 CK CCSSA form to establish a baseline and identify content areas that need work.
- Week −6UWSA 1
Mid-cycle check. Treat the UWSA result as another input, not as a fixed offset from your final score.
- Week −4Second CCSSA
Choose another unused CCSSA form and compare both the total result and content-area feedback.
- Week −3UWSA 2
Use as another late-cycle input and compare it with your recent CCSSA results.
- Week −2Late CCSSA check
Use a fresh form to check whether your trend holds under new questions.
- Week −1Free 120 + recent CCSSA
Compare the two signals. Agreement is more informative than a fixed adjustment to either score.
- Test dayWalk in with confidence
Use the full predicted range for planning. No practice assessment can guarantee the final score.
Related Step 2 CK tools
Step 2 CK predictor FAQs
How accurate is the Step 2 CK predictor?+
A reproducible holdout validation dataset is not currently published, so we do not claim a verified median error. More recent, consistent inputs can make the model range more useful, but the official score report remains the primary readiness signal.
Which practice exam is most predictive of Step 2 CK?+
No single practice exam guarantees a final score. Use a recent CCSSA result together with Free 120 or UWSA 2, and pay attention to agreement across inputs and the full planning range.
What is the current Step 2 CK passing score?+
The passing standard is 218 for examinees testing on or after July 1, 2025. A prediction near that threshold should be interpreted with its full planning range, not as a guaranteed pass.
Should I take Step 2 CK before submitting ERAS?+
That depends on your application timeline, program requirements, and when an official result is likely to be available. Confirm current reporting guidance with USMLE and discuss application timing with your school or advisor.
What is a competitive Step 2 CK score?+
There is no universal competitive cutoff. If you use match data, select the current applicant group and specialty, then interpret the score alongside the rest of the application and individual program information.
What will my Step 2 CK score be?
Add your recent Step 2 CK inputs. The result is an independent planning estimate with a model-generated range, not a guarantee.