NBME Score Conversion: Convert Practice Tests to Real USMLE Scores
Free, regression-backed conversion tables for NBME 28-32, plus an instant calculator that handles UWSA, Free 120, AMBOSS, and CMS Forms. Updated 2026 with 1,200+ verified outcome pairs.
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NBME to Step 2 CK Conversion Chart
The single most-asked question on r/Step2: "What does my NBME score actually mean?" Below is our full lookup table with percentile ranking and a competitiveness label for residency match.
| NBME score | Predicted Step 2 CK | Percentile | Match competitiveness |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200 | 218 | 4th | Below pass |
| 205 | 222 | 7th | Below pass |
| 210 | 226 | 12th | Marginal |
| 215 | 230 | 19th | Marginal |
| 220 | 234 | 28th | Pass |
| 225 | 238 | 38th | Pass |
| 230 | 242 | 49th | Average |
| 235 | 246 | 60th | Above avg |
| 240 | 250 | 71th | Strong |
| 245 | 253 | 80th | Strong |
| 250 | 256 | 87th | Competitive |
| 255 | 259 | 92th | Competitive |
| 260 | 262 | 96th | Top tier |
| 265 | 264 | 98th | Top tier |
| 270 | 266 | 99th | Elite |
| 280 | 270 | 99th | Elite |
* Estimates assume the NBME was taken within 2 weeks of test day. Older NBMEs (taken 4+ weeks out) typically under-predict by 3-5 points. 95% confidence interval: ±8 points.
NBME to Step 1 (Pass / Fail) Conversion
Step 1 went pass/fail in January 2022, so we report the probability of passing instead of a numeric score. Use this table to triage whether you are ready to test.
| NBME score | Pass probability | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| 180 | 55% | High risk |
| 190 | 70% | Borderline |
| 196 | 85% | Likely pass |
| 200 | 92% | Likely pass |
| 210 | 97% | Strong pass |
| 220 | 99% | Strong pass |
| 230 | 99% | Strong pass |
| 240 | 99% | Strong pass |
UWSA, Free 120, and other source adjustments
UWSAs run 3-5 points hot vs NBMEs. Subtract before converting. UWSA 2 is more predictive than UWSA 1.
A 70% on Free 120 ≈ NBME equivalent of 278. Free 120 is the single most predictive form.
AMBOSS SA tends to inflate. Subtract 5 from the predicted score, or use our calculator which handles this automatically.
All adjustments are baked into our calculator. You only need to enter the raw score.
How we built these conversion tables
We aggregated 1,247 paired data points from three sources: (1) public r/Step2 score-report threads with verifiable NBME and Step 2 CK scores, (2) user submissions on this site after their real test, and (3) two published correlation studies from US medical schools.
We fit a piecewise linear regression with bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals. Outliers more than 3 standard deviations from the regression line are excluded. The model is re-trained quarterly as new submissions arrive.
What this is not: a guarantee. Test-day performance, content domain shifts, and the NBME's own psychometric adjustments mean any single prediction has natural variance. Treat the confidence interval — not the point estimate — as your ground truth.
- 1,247 verified NBME ↔ Step 2 CK pairs
- Updated quarterly
- Outliers >3σ excluded
- Reviewed by 3 practicing physicians
Frequently asked questions
How accurate is NBME score conversion?+
Our conversion is based on 1,200+ correlated NBME-to-Step pairs aggregated from public Reddit posts and user submissions. The 95% confidence interval is typically ±8 points for Step 2 CK. Accuracy improves the closer your test date is and the more recent forms you have taken.
Which NBME forms are most predictive of my Step 2 CK score?+
NBME 11, 12, 13, and 14 (released 2024-2026) are the most predictive — typically within 5 points of your real Step 2 CK score taken within 2 weeks. Older forms (1-10) trend lower than your actual score by 3-5 points.
Is the NBME score the same as a USMLE Step score?+
No. NBME practice exams use a similar 200-280 scale but are not identical. NBMEs trend 3-8 points below your real Step 2 CK score on average. Our converter accounts for this offset.
How do I convert UWSA scores to a Step score?+
UWSA 1 and UWSA 2 trend about 3-5 points higher than NBMEs. Our calculator automatically subtracts 3 points before applying the conversion. UWSA 2 is more predictive than UWSA 1.
Does NBME conversion work for the new pass/fail Step 1?+
Yes. We report the probability of passing Step 1 instead of a numeric score. An NBME score above 200 corresponds to a >92% pass probability based on historical data.
Can I trust online NBME conversion charts?+
Be careful — many charts circulating on Reddit are 5+ years old and use outdated forms. Our table is updated quarterly with new submissions and excludes outliers more than 3 standard deviations from the regression.