Step 1 Predictor: Calculate Your Pass Probability
Step 1 results are reported as pass/fail. Read the probability and range on your current CBSSA report first, then use this independent estimate only as a secondary planning view.
Do not use this page as a test-date directive
NBMEcalc has not published a holdout validation study for its Step 1 probability estimate. Use the official CBSSA report, current USMLE rules, and your school or advisor's process for any decision to sit, postpone, or repeat an assessment.
Run the Step 1 calculator
Pick Step 1 below and add compatible UWSA or Free 120 inputs. Current CBSSA reports use equated percent correct, so read their official pass probability and likely range directly instead of entering that EPC in a three-digit field.
Try the Predictor Live
Add your scores. See your range instantly. No signup.
Select your exam
Your practice exams
No signup required. Calculate clicks are logged to measure and improve the funnel; see Privacy for retention details.
How to review several recent assessments
- Confirm that each calculator input belongs to Step 1 and uses a supported scale.
- Read the official probability and likely range on every current CBSSA report.
- Note whether recent unused forms agree under similar timing and test conditions.
- Use NBMEcalc only to summarize that pattern, then investigate any disagreement instead of averaging it away.
The model uses internal mappings and recency weights. See the methodology for the assumptions behind the model.
Four checks before interpreting a Step 1 estimate
These checks prevent a model midpoint from being mistaken for an official pass probability or a universal scheduling rule.
Use the official report first
Read the estimated probability of passing, likely score range, and low-pass range printed on the current CBSSA report before consulting an independent model.
Confirm the score scale
Current CBSSA reporting uses equated percent correct (EPC). Do not enter EPC into a field that expects a legacy three-digit practice score.
Look for agreement
Compare several recent, unused assessments taken under similar conditions. A consistent trend is more informative than choosing the most reassuring result.
Escalate uncertain decisions
If the official probability, score range, and recent trend disagree, discuss the full reports with your school or academic advisor before changing an exam date.
What the official sources establish
Keep official policy and report facts separate from NBMEcalc's internal assumptions.
Pass/fail reporting
USMLE reports Step 1 outcomes as pass/fail. Current scoring and transcript rules should be checked on the official USMLE site.
CBSSA readiness fields
NBME's current CBSSA report provides EPC, a likely range, the Step 1 low-pass range, and an estimated probability of passing within the stated testing window.
Policies can change
Eligibility, attempt limits, score reporting, and rescheduling rules are controlled by USMLE and the registration entities—not by this calculator.
What to do when the signals disagree
Check comparability. Confirm that the assessments use the same Step 1 family and were taken under comparable conditions without outside resources.
Read the official uncertainty. Compare each report's probability and likely range rather than relying on one calculator midpoint.
Identify the decision. Write down what new evidence would change your plan: another unused assessment, updated school guidance, or review of the content-area report.
Ask for a second review. Borderline, declining, or sharply inconsistent results deserve review by your school or academic advisor; NBMEcalc does not prescribe a delay interval.
This framework is educational and does not replace official assessment feedback or institution-specific requirements.
Step 1 predictor FAQs
What is a passing score on Step 1 now?+
Step 1 results are reported as pass/fail. Use the current USMLE scoring page for the official standard and the current CBSSA report for readiness information; NBMEcalc does not publish an unofficial numeric cutoff.
How predictive is my NBME score for passing Step 1?+
The current CBSSA report includes NBME's estimated probability of passing within the stated testing window. That official probability is the primary readiness signal; NBMEcalc's output is an independent, unvalidated planning estimate.
Does the calculator account for the new pass/fail format?+
The model converts inputs to an internal equated score and shows an experimental pass estimate with a planning range. It is not a validated substitute for the official CBSSA readiness report.
Should I take Step 1 if my latest NBME is below 200?+
There is no universal decision rule based on one unofficial three-digit threshold. Review the scale and probability printed on your current CBSSA report, compare recent unused forms, and discuss borderline or conflicting evidence with your school or advisor.
Can I retake Step 1 if I fail?+
USMLE publishes the current attempt-limit and eligibility rules. Because those rules can change and may interact with registration-entity requirements, verify the official policy rather than relying on a calculator page.
Know your Step 1 pass margin
Combine recent inputs for a secondary planning view, then compare the result with the probability and range on your official reports.